The key facts

  • NATO presented the 'Theory of Victory' concept: Block, Blunt and Break stages against a potential aggressor.
  • The concept was developed primarily with the potential threat from Moscow in mind, though Russia was not named in the speech.
  • Grinkevich stated he does not believe war is inevitable or imminent.

According to DW, Grinkevich presented the concept on October 12 at a security conference in Warsaw presented.

It divides actions against a potential aggressor into three stages: stopping the attack — Block, breaking the momentum of the attack and preventing any advance — Blunt, and, if necessary, defeating the attacking forces as well as the military systems supplying and commanding them — Break.

According to Grinkevich's explanation, signs of preparation for an attack should be identified in advance through intelligence data, surveillance systems and analysis. This makes it possible to assess the intentions of a potential adversary and deploy NATO forces in time. The goal is to prevent the alliance from being caught off guard by a surprise attack.

If an attack occurs, the main task in the initial stage falls to the ground forces on the forward defense lines. They must stop the attack, restrict the movement of enemy units and destroy them.

At the same time, aviation and naval forces, with the support of space and cyber assets, are expected to establish superiority in the air and at sea as quickly as possible.

If the attacks continue, the plan is to halt the enemy's further advance through coordinated operations along various directions, high-tech sensors and autonomous weapon systems, with the initiative passing into NATO's hands.

If the enemy continues the attack after that or brings in additional forces, the stage of disabling its military system begins. This envisages disrupting supply routes, destroying command systems and depriving the attacking units of their ability to conduct combat operations.

Grinkevich emphasized that NATO's goal is not to inflict a strategic defeat on the adversary state, but to militarily defeat the forces attacking the alliance's member countries.

In his roughly 15-minute speech, the supreme commander never openly mentioned Russia by name. However, DW noted that the concept was developed primarily with the potential threat from Moscow in mind.

"I do not believe that war is inevitable or could begin in the very near future. It is not like that," Grinkevich said.